Recent polling data reveals that Kari Lake, a former candidate for governor in Arizona and a staunch ally of Donald Trump, appears to be well-positioned to secure the Republican nomination in her upcoming primary. Lake’s campaign is gaining momentum over her rival, Mark Lamb, who currently serves as the Sheriff of Pinal County.
The survey, conducted by Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) between July 22 and July 23, presents a clear lead for Lake among likely Republican voters. The data indicates that Lake holds a commanding 50 percent of the support, while Lamb trails with 38 percent. A third GOP contender, Elizabeth Rye, is significantly behind with approximately 3 percent, and 9 percent of voters remain undecided. This margin underscores Lake’s strong position within the party as she heads towards the nomination.
However, when considering early voters—those who have already cast their ballots—the gap between Lake and Lamb narrows. Lake’s lead diminishes to a slim six percentage points among these early voters. Despite this reduction, she still maintains a solid advantage, leading 56 percent to 45 percent among those who have yet to vote. This trend suggests that while early voting may slightly tighten the race, Lake’s overall support remains robust.
The forthcoming general election will see the Republican nominee face U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego, who is the sole Democrat running for the seat. This race is particularly notable given the current political landscape in Arizona. Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who had previously held the position, announced earlier this year that she would not seek reelection. Sinema, initially elected as a Democrat in 2018, switched her affiliation to Independent, marking a significant shift in her political stance. Her decision to step away from the race opens up the field for Gallego and Lake to compete for the seat.
Lake, who received Trump’s endorsement during her 2022 gubernatorial campaign, is now showing a slight edge over Gallego in recent polls. Initially, Gallego was favored to win, but Lake’s campaign has gained traction by focusing on key issues such as immigration. Lake has been vocal in attributing the influx of migrants at Arizona’s southern border to Gallego’s support for President Joe Biden’s policies. This focus on immigration seems to resonate with voters, especially in a state known for its dynamic political landscape, which has seen a dramatic shift from a Trump win in 2016 to a Biden victory in 2020.
Lake’s campaign, which began in February, initially saw her lagging behind Gallego by approximately 5 percent in various polls. However, her fortunes have improved, particularly following Biden’s less favorable debate performance. The most recent polling data shows Lake leading Gallego by 51 percent to 49 percent. This narrow lead reflects a competitive and closely watched race, highlighting the significant impact of recent campaign strategies and political developments.
In the broader context of Arizona politics, recent years have seen a shift in party control. Democrats have achieved notable successes, winning four consecutive statewide federal elections and taking the Governor’s office in 2022. Meanwhile, Republicans maintain control of both houses of the Arizona State Legislature and hold a majority in the state’s U.S. House delegation. The state’s recent presidential elections underscore its mixed political tendencies, with Trump winning by 3.5 percent in 2016 and Biden narrowly securing victory by 0.3 percent in 2020.
Lake’s previous loss to Governor Katie Hobbs in 2022, followed by a series of unsuccessful legal challenges questioning the election’s integrity, could have been a setback. Yet, Lake has strategically shifted her focus to address pressing national issues such as government dysfunction, inflation, and housing shortages in the Southwest. This shift appears to resonate with voters, positioning her as a candidate who is in touch with everyday concerns and challenges facing the electorate.
Lake’s campaign has also garnered substantial support within her party. Notably, she has received endorsements from 23 out of 49 Republican Senators, signaling strong backing from key figures in the GOP. This robust support was further highlighted by a significant fundraising event hosted by Trump at Mar-a-Lago in April. At this event, Lake raised over $1 million, setting a new record for fundraising by a non-incumbent at the venue. This financial boost and political endorsement underscore Lake’s prominent position in the Republican primary and her campaign’s growing influence.
As the primary approaches, Lake’s strong performance in polls and her strategic focus on critical issues suggest that she is well-positioned to secure the Republican nomination. The upcoming election promises to be a closely watched and competitive race, reflecting the ongoing shifts and dynamics within Arizona’s political landscape.